The Outlook for Energy Energy matters to everyone, and we all play a role in shaping its future. Understanding the factors that drive the world’s energy needs, and likely choices to meet those needs, is the mission of ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy . By sharing the Outlook with the public, we hope to broaden that under- standing among individuals, businesses and governments. Every day, all over the world, energy makes modern life possible. We rely on it for food production, mobility, shelter, security, communication and modern health care. Energy also drives growth, opportunity and progress. The global population is projected to rise to 9 billion in 2040, while economic growth in China, India and other non-OECD 4 countries will enable significantly more people to improve their living standards. We estimate that global energy demand will be 25 percent higher in 2040 than it was in 2014, led by a 45 percent increase in non-OECD countries. Improved living standards will require meeting the world’s energy needs while managing the environmental impacts of energy use, including climate change. Practical options to help meet the needs for reliable, affordable and cleaner energy continue to expand. We expect that as efficiencies improve and society shifts toward lower-carbon fuels, the amount of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions per dollar of global gross domestic product (GDP) will be cut in half by 2040. We update our long-term energy outlook each year, taking into account the most up-to-date demographic, economic and technological information available. The following are some highlights from this year’s Outlook for Energy : • Energy is fundamental to standards of living — As incomes rise, billions of people in developing nations will rise into the middle class; many will be able to afford amenities such as temperature-controlled homes, cars and appliances. In 2014, there were about 10 cars per 100 people in China. By 2040, this number is expected to rise to about 30 cars per 100 people. • Developing nations will lead gains in GDP and living standards — We expect that China, India and many other developing nations will see strong growth in GDP and
Global fuel demand in 2040 — projections
Quadrillion BTUs Energy demand
Quadrillion BTUs
1,200
250
Average annual growth rate 2014–2040 Average of all fuel types: 0.9%
0.7%
1,000
200
Energy savings
1.6%
800
-0.2%
2014 2040
150
Rest of world
600
India Key growth
100
400
0.3%
2.9%
China
50
200
4.8%
1.3%
OECD32 4
0 2000 2020 2040
0
Oil
Gas
Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar/ wind/ biofuels
Hydro/ geo
• Natural gas grows more than any other energy source — Demand for natural gas is growing rapidly, in part due to its abundance and ability to meet a wide variety of needs as the cleanest-burning major fuel. Around 40 percent of the growth in global energy demand from 2014 to 2040 is projected to be met by natural gas. • Technology has the highest potential and the greatest uncertainty — Advances in technology have tremendous potential to help meet our energy and environmental goals, but the pace of change is difficult to predict. There is also significant emphasis on technological advances to improve energy efficiency. Global average fuel economy for light- duty vehicles is expected to improve by 80 percent from 2014 to 2040, reflecting advances in technology.
living standards to 2040. Per capita income in non-OECD nations is expected to rise by about 135 percent between 2014 and 2040; in OECD nations, it is expected to rise almost 60 percent. • Economics and policies will impact the energy mix — Increasingly, the mix of fuels that consumers use to meet their energy needs will be reshaped by economics, tech- nology and government policies. In general, demand will shift toward cleaner fuels like natural gas, renewables and nuclear. The share of the world’s electricity generated by coal will likely drop to about 30 percent in 2040, from more than 40 percent in 2014. • Oil will remain the world’s primary fuel — We expect oil to continue to be the world’s leading energy source, driven by demand for transportation fuels and by the chemical industry. One-third of the world’s energy is expected to be provided by oil in 2040.
The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
4 The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Refer to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development website ( oecd.org ) for a listing of its members.
exxonmobil.com/citizenship The Outlook for Energy
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